Oil prices remained steady as markets awaited the outcome of a high-stakes summit between the US and Russian presidents in Alaska later on Friday, which could significantly influence global crude supply. President Putin praised Donald Trump’s efforts to end the Ukraine war, while Trump tempered expectations, estimating only a 25% chance of success.
Any shift in US sanctions on Russia, a key OPEC+ member, could impact global oil flows. The Ukraine war and Western sanctions have already disrupted markets, with Russia — the world’s second-largest crude exporter after Saudi Arabia — increasingly dependent on discounted sales to China and India. In response, Trump recently doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50% and is considering tighter measures against the “shadow fleet” of tankers transporting Russian oil. He has held off on sanctioning China, likely due to fears of triggering a surge in oil prices that could affect US consumers.
Trump warned of “very severe consequences” if Putin refuses a ceasefire, and expressed interest in arranging a follow-up meeting with Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy. Analysts believe the summit may yield groundwork for negotiations, which could pressure oil prices lower.
