India’s economic growth outlook for 2026-27 has been revised upward to 7–7.4% following the release of a new GDP series by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran said.
The revision comes after the new GDP base year and methodological changes indicated stronger underlying growth momentum. Under the updated series, growth for 2025-26 is now estimated at 7.6%, 20 basis points higher than the earlier projection of 7.4% under the 2011-12 base year.
Speaking after the data release, Nageswaran said the government had earlier projected a growth range of 6.8–7.2% for FY27 in the Economic Survey. However, following benchmark revisions and positive developments such as the framework agreement with the United States, the outlook has been upgraded. He added that risks to the forecast are “on the upside,” with the economy more likely to achieve growth closer to 7.4%, though global uncertainties remain a downside factor.
The revised data shows that GDP growth for 2023-24 has been adjusted down to 7.2% from 9.2%, while 2024-25 has been raised to 7.1% from 6.5%. Together with the 7.6% estimate for the current fiscal year, this marks three consecutive years of over 7% growth, reinforcing the government’s assessment that India’s potential GDP growth is around 7%.
Investment trends also remain encouraging. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has stayed around 32% of GDP since 2022-23, reflecting sustained investment levels despite global uncertainty. Notably, unincorporated enterprises have recorded over 10% growth in machinery and equipment investment at current prices, highlighting dynamism beyond the formal sector.
While economists have flagged a slow private investment cycle, Nageswaran pointed to resilient private consumption, strong rural demand, and improving urban consumption supported by tax cuts as signs of sustained economic momentum.
Growth Momentum Strengthens as India Revises GDP Series, FY27 Outlook Upgraded
